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Experts Keeping Close Eye on Asteroid

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Phys
 Post subject: Experts Keeping Close Eye on Asteroid
 Post Posted: Wed Apr 15, 2009 5:33 pm 
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Anti-Zionist princess
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Joined: Jan 1st, 2007
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Quote:
(April 14) -- An asteroid the size of a 25-story building will come within 18,000 miles of Earth on April 13, 2029 -- closer than the communication satellites that orbit the planet, Discovery.com reported.
The asteroid, called Apophis, has only a 1 on in 45,000 chance of colliding with Earth. But it will then be back for another shot seven years after that.


http://news.aol.com/article/asteroid-ap ... s%2F426922
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ledskof
 Post subject: Re: Experts Keeping Close Eye on Asteroid
 Post Posted: Thu Apr 16, 2009 4:23 pm 
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Over the system
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I'm always confused by the probability attached to these events. Is the 1 in 45,000 chance really based on a percentage of error for how accurately the asteroid's trajectory has been estimated or something? Otherwise it seems like something can potentially alter the trajectory to make it head directly towards earth. I don't see what could happen to alter the trajectory though... It would have to be something major.

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